abril 23, 2019
The debate about who holds the ‘GOAT’ (Greatest Of All Time) title in the men’s professional tennis game is recurring and contentious. The current golden era of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray (to a lesser extent) has made for epic rivalries and spans of dominance such that each of these three players have passionate proponents for their claim to the ultimate distinction. That said, this shortlist misses some names that perennially come up in the GOAT conversations: Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg, Pete Sampras, Ken Rosewall and John McEnroe.
There is a lot commentary on this topic, so we wanted to take slightly different angle to the most frequent takes floating around the internet. There is a variety of viable methods (or combinations of them) one can use to analyse who is the best of all time in the sport, so we will list and expand on them in turn. Maybe we will convince you to back another player for the crown or perhaps we will just harden your current views, but either way, we are aiming to provide you with an informative, thought-provoking read.
*Spoiler alert*
Our two cents after pouring over all this data? Federer has the edge and holds the most consequential records in relation to GOAT status. He has won the most important titles, has the most impressive array of titles across ALL surfaces and holds the record related to number of weeks at #1.
Both Nadal and especially Novak are in the vicinity of some of his records but that assumes that they both stay healthy, motivated and hold off both Federer himself as well as the next-gen stars that are finally becoming a threat each week on the tour. What Federer has achieved early in his career and most strikingly (pun intended) in the last three years is unlikely to be matched nor surpassed.
Premise behind the argument
The Grand Slams, Masters Series events (especially the 1000 point events) and ATP Tour Finals attract the strongest contingent of competitors and have the highest stakes attached. The Grand Slams also have the biggest draws, so claiming victory at one of tournaments requires sustaining an incredibly high level for two weeks. Further, best of five sets matches even the playing field to a degree because matches aren’t won via catching fire and steamrolling an opponent in 40 minutes.
GOAT contenders on this basis
Performance at Grand Slams -
Performance at ATP Tour Finals -
Performance at Grand Slams -
Performance at Masters Series Events -
Performance at Grand Slams -
Performance at ATP Masters Series Events -
Performance at ATP Tour Finals -
Premise behind the argument
Even though tennis has the reputation of being a sport that is very adverse to change, there have certainly been consequential developments of consider in the the last 50 years. For instance, there is the well-worn argument that the Australian Open didn’t have the same status as the other Slams in 1969, so players in this generation were competing for three Grand Slam titles a year instead of four.
Moreover, there is the argument that the quality of a generation should be given a certain weight when calculating ‘all time’ status. Being ranked at the top of the game when your peers aren’t exceptional and the game lacks depth is unlucky, but is a material consideration in the GOAT debate.
GOAT contenders on this basis
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Premise behind the argument
Tennis is a game of match ups and career H2H results is a concrete way of looking at who has an edge between two players. However, there is nuance required when applying this lens because different variables inevitably come into play: results on a given surface, results at major tournaments vs. smaller events and results at different junctures of a player’s career.
GOAT contenders on this basis
Premise behind the argument
The GOAT is the most dominant player to ever walk on the tennis court, so an obvious distillation of that distinction is winning percentage. It shouldn’t matter which surface or which phase of his career the opponent is in - the greatest of all time simply comes out with the W.
GOAT contenders on this basis
OVERALL |
GRAND SLAMS |
MASTERS SERIES |
|
ROGER FEDERER |
82% |
86% |
78% |
RAFA NADAL |
83% |
87% |
83% |
NOVAK DJOKOVIC |
83% |
87% |
82% |
Premise behind the argument
Enduring success at the top of the game is a core attribute of the GOAT. So, it follows that gaining and keeping the number one ranking for an extended period of time is perhaps the most obvious marker of true greatness. Extra credit here for achieving this ranking across multiple cohorts of players, which shows added depth of excellence.
GOAT contenders on this basis
Premise behind the argument
It’s simply illogical to argue that a surface specialist deserves the GOAT title without qualification. Although the distribution of tournaments played on hard court, grass, clay and indoors has varied over the years (remember carpet?!), being the best in the game requires a versatile style and the highest level of competence irrespective of the conditions.
GOAT contenders on this basis
HARD |
CLAY |
GRASS |
INDOOR |
OUTDOOR |
|
ROGER FEDERER |
84% (70) |
75% (11) |
87% (18) |
81% (25) |
83% (76) |
RAFA NADAL |
77% (19) |
92% (57) |
78% (4) |
68% (2) |
85% (78) |
NOVAK DJOKOVIC |
84% (55) |
79% (13) |
83% (5) |
79% (12) |
84% (61) |
*Figures in brackets indicate number of titles
We have done a fair amount of leg work pulling stats and making different arguments to consider on the question of the GOAT. However, this pales in comparison to the number crunching and sophistication of the data analysis happening on the Ultimate Tennis Statistics site.
Our favourite aspects of the site are the ‘Dominance Timeline’ which shows who was reigned supreme in a given year and - more interestingly - their degree of dominance. We also appreciate the self-explanatory ‘Greatest Rivalries’ table and of course the GOAT List which has a complex, multivariate methodology and currently puts Roger at the top of the list, followed by Novak and Nadal…
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